Economic forecasting has never been as difficult as it is now

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Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said that economic forecasting faced many difficulties in the context of too many uncertain factors.

Speaking at the regular Government press conference this afternoon (August 3), Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong affirmed that economic forecasting has never been as difficult as now, because there are too many uncertain factors. . “Actually, the forecast results of famous international organizations in the world are also different,” he said.

According to Deputy Minister Phuong, during the forecasting process, when assuming plans and plans to reopen the economy and some economies in the world, the development of the Covid-19 epidemic showed, many plans have been broken, the economy is expected to open but it must be delayed, there are places already open but it must be closed shortly. “Such continuous changes make forecasting very difficult,” he said.

Making specific comments, Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong said that in the past 6-month socio-economic results, the report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment has made forecasts and warnings about, if any. The second “wave” of Covid-19, as it happened earlier this year, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy, “which will greatly impact the indicators and results.”

However, the difference with the beginning of the year lies in the direction and administration. Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong cited that in the first epidemic of the year, Vietnam had applied the national social gap for nearly 20 days, affecting very low growth results in the second quarter of 2020 (up 0.36%). . “Therefore, for this outbreak, the Prime Minister and the Government have drastically and firmly directed the epidemic not to spread widely, determined to put all resources and forces to successfully implement the dual objective and control. The disease has just boosted economic growth, “Phuong said.

Further analysis, people with many years of sticking to the synthesis and forecasts of the planning and investment sector said that preliminary assessments show that tourism and passenger transport are the two industries that are immediately affected by this pandemic. “Not only Da Nang but many resorts across the country have received cancellation orders, canceled travel agencies, air transport, road affected, although the tourism industry in July has increased. Chief spurt, “he said.

He said that immediately after the outbreak, the Minister of Planning and Investment directed units within the Ministry to promptly update, study, collect data to make forecasts, implement the directing the Prime Minister on a monthly basis, together with other ministries and agencies, to elaborate detailed scripts for the Prime Minister’s and the Government’s directing and management work.

“Certainly the impact is there, but how many times when there will be a specific scenario to report to the Prime Minister, the next meeting we will announce in detail”, Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong said.